«Bolivia’s left-wing and Indigenous sector is currently represented by three prominent figures, all formerly part of the ruling party for 19 of the past 20 years, the Movement for Socialism (MAS). President Arce, who is not running for re-election, still controls MAS. Former President Evo Morales, now without a party and barred from running by the constitutional court, continues to push for legal and social means to regain eligibility. Meanwhile, Senator Andrónico Rodríguez has emerged as a fresh face supported by a new political bloc, ‘Alianza Popular,’ gaining significant backing as a renewal figure in contrast to Arce and Morales. While there are growing calls for unity around Rodríguez, it remains unclear whether the three will come together or remain divided. On the center-right, two main figures—businessman Samuel Doria Medina and former President Jorge Quiroga—also remain at odds. Civic and citizen groups urge them to unite to defeat the left, but so far, no signs of convergence have emerged.
As a result, the right is just as fragmented as the left, creating an unpredictable and open electoral scenario. Regarding confidence in the electoral process: Unlike in 2019, when the Electoral Tribunal was widely discredited and subordinated to President Morales, leading to accusations of fraud and the annulment of the election, the new heads of the electoral body have restored some credibility to this institution, thanks to more responsible recent conduct. Therefore, despite Morales’ announcements of complaints and protests about his candidacy, the upcoming elections are expected to produce a widely accepted result.»